Assessing the climate-related risk of marine biodiversity degradation for coastal and marine tourism

Coastal and marine tourism faces multiple climate risks. The degradation of marine ecosystems may have profound implications for destinations, especially if marine activities are the main attraction. This study aims to assess the climate-related risk of marine habitat degradation to coastal and marine tourism. Risk analysis is undertaken through a blended methods approach by adapting the IPCC AR6 concept of climate risk, the Impact Chain framework and hierarchical multi-criteria analysis with stakeholders' participation. The study is based on representative European islands, allowing comparison of risk as a composite of hazard, vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and the exposure of the tourism system to the hazard. The analysis is undertaken across diverse tourism areas that share the challenge of developing tourism-based economies that are more resilient to climate change. Results indicate that the most relevant factor explaining the level of risk is adaptive capacity. The study captures islands’ heterogeneities from the local perspective that might inspire collaborative policy-design. Different scenarios regarding the islands under study highlight specific adaptation policy areas that might be prioritised in each case to more effectively respond to the threat. The study demonstrates the validity of the blended methods approach for adaptation planning in coastal tourism areas.