A stochastic assessment for oil contamination probability: A case study of the Bosphorus

The Bosphorus is one of the busiest shipping lanes globally as it is the only maritime route for Black Sea countries. Every year about 50,000 ships sail through this lane. Hence, it is necessary to develop emergency response planning strategies due to its high vessel passage rate, distinguished geometry, and delicate hydrodynamics that exhibit two layer stratified flow and exchange water mass between the adjacent seas. In this study, a 3D hydrodynamic model of the Bosphorus is established to simulate oil spill scenarios for improving preparedness for an oil spill event. A stochastic approach is followed to identify oil contamination probability maps for four different ensembles considering two different oil types and two meteo-oceanographic conditions. The results highlight the importance of using different meteo-oceanographic conditions, as probability maps regarding different meteo-oceanographic conditions show large variability. The suggested response strategies can be used to manage oil spill emergencies in the Bosporus more efficiently. •A high resolution 3-D hydrodynamic model is established and calibrated.•Oil contamination probability is investigated by using a stochastic assessment.•Oil contamination maps were produced for different flow conditions and oil types.•The potential pollution areas in the Bosphorus were identified.