Local environmental characteristics may impact cancer risk estimation after a radiological event

Environmental contamination and its associated consequences are a significant concern after an event of a radioactive material release. This study focuses on activating a hypothetical radiological dispersion device (RDD), also known as a dirty bomb, in an inhabited zone. The event was simulated by applying analytical modeling with the HotSpot Health Physics codes. A comparison of two models of radioactive material deposition on soil and its associated consequences was carried out. The WASH 1400 and Likhtarev models were compared concerning preliminary data generation on radiological risk under different local atmospheric stability classes, represented by the probability of developing radio-induced leukemia in a young portion of the potentially affected population. Epidemiological models were applied to provide numerical risk estimates covering the four initial days of the event. An association between local atmospheric conditions and soil roughness on radiation dose estimates, the risk of developing cancer, and the size of the affected population was perceived. The results point to a successful combination of conservative computational modeling, environmental changes, and the application of radioepidemiological models to build an effective coping strategy.