The potential for refining nitrogen fertiliser management through accounting for climate impacts: An exploratory study for the Tully region

Increasing the precision of nitrogen (N) fertiliser management in cropping systems is integral to increasing the environmental and economic sustainability of cropping. In a simulation study, we found that natural variability in year-to-year climate had a major effect on optimum N fertiliser rates for sugarcane in the Tully region of north-eastern Australia, where N discharges pose high risks to Great Barrier Reef ecosystems. There were interactions between climate and other factors affecting crop growth that made optimum N rates field-specific. The regional average optimum N fertiliser rate was substantially lower than current industry guidelines. Likewise, simulated N losses to the environment at optimum N fertiliser rates were substantially lower than the simulated losses at current industry fertiliser guidelines. Dissolved N discharged from rivers is related to fertiliser applications. If the reductions in N applications identified in the study occurred in the Tully region, the reduction in dissolved N discharges from rivers in the region would almost meet current water quality improvement targets. Whilst there were many assumptions made in this exploratory study, and there are many steps between the study and a practically implemented dynamic N fertiliser recommendation system, the potential environmental benefits justify field validation and further development of the concepts identified in the study. •Sugarcane N response differs when rainfall is above or below average.•The effect of rainfall depends on soil-type and harvest date (i.e. growing season).•Interactions are complex so optimal N application rates are field specific.•Knowledge of seasonal climate information could reduce sugarcane N rates by 47%.•This reduction in N rates would have important water quality benefits.