Identification and uncertainty analysis of high-risk areas of heavy metals in sediments of the Yangtze River estuary, China

In this study, ordinary kriging (OK) and indicator kriging (IK) were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with high-risk areas of seven heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn) in sediments of the Yangtze River estuary during four seasons. The OK results showed that the high-risk areas of Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, and Pb had a high proportion, with the highest corresponding to Cr pollution (up to 60%). Predictions based on IK revealed that the proportion of high-risk areas of Cr, Cd, and Hg pollution were high, especially that of Cr was higher than 90%. However, there were uncertainties between the OK and IK results. The uncertainty results revealed that the uncertainty areas of Cr pollution were relatively large, accounting for about 30%, while those of Cd, Cu, and Hg pollution were lower than 10%. •High-risk area of heavy metals and its uncertainty in sediment were explored.•High-risk area of Cr pollution is the most prominent and should be paid attention.•High-risk area was mainly located in the sea around Chongming Island.•Although OK and IK both have certain uncertainties, IK is more reliable.