Assessing the potential areas for developing offshore wind energy in Japanese territorial waters considering national zoning and possible social conflicts

This study identified areas suitable for offshore wind energy development in Japan based on a low probability of conflicts with stakeholders, such as fishery groups, shipping agents, and residents (minor conflict areas). Using geographic information systems, this study uses a two-stage approach. The first stage reviews Japanese zoning rules and excludes non-conforming areas with rules. The second stage examines case studies of stakeholder conflicts to identify minor conflict areas using three parameters, i.e., distance from the shore, shipping density, and existence of fishery rights, by considering local concerns regarding the seascape and conflicts resulting from shipping routes and fishery rights. Although previous studies have assessed massive offshore wind energy potential areas (> 140,000 km2) with various approaches, the areas that conform to the zoning rules (53,665 km2) and minor conflicts areas (7,213 km2 or 2% of Japanese territorial waters) are significantly limited. Furthermore, this study revealed that concerns regarding the seascape are a key issue inhibiting the expansion of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines in Japan. Thus, the approach, which considers both zoning rules and stakeholder conflicts, can reduce the risk of offshore wind energy potential overestimation. For offshore wind energy capacity targets, relevant authorities should carefully examine both the zoning rules and stakeholders. •Area conforming to Japanese zoning rules is 53,665 km2.•Minor conflict areas (7213 km2) are significantly limited.•Seascape impacts are a concern for most bottom-fixed wind turbines in Japan.•Suggested approach can reduce risk of offshore wind energy potential overestimation.•Suggested approach is important when considering offshore wind energy targets.