Territorial planning of rustic land constructions and their adaptation to climate change in the province of Málaga, Spain

Incorporating risk analysis into physical planning is increasingly necessary to anticipate and take appropriate measures to prevent and defend against disasters. This paper extends the concept of carrying capacity by studying two models: an ecosystem-bringing capacity model and a territorial model of construction on rural land. A climate change variable was integrated into both models, and the changes that occurred depending on the emissions scenario and the time horizons were considered for developing the suitability, impact, and risk models. The data obtained in this study give us an idea of the difficulties that may exist in most of the territory for the construction location on rural land. In fact, only 14% of the occupied study area reaches positive values for the carrying capacity of ecosystems; besides, there are no constructions on rural land located on positive values if we include the risks in the planning. Contextually, assigning a value to the comparable carrying capacity, based on a holistic conception of planning and scientific data, can facilitate the decision-making to initiate future studies and work. Moreover, this study enables to anticipate the effects of climate change when drawing up adaptation and mitigation policies, plans, or programs. •Incorporating risk analysis into physical planning can prevent disasters.•Ecosystem-bringing capacity model and territorial model of construction is studied.•This study enables to anticipate the effects of climate change for land policies.