An integrated system dynamics model of electricity production, consumption, and export policy in Iran considering carbon emissions

The electricity industry is a cornerstone of modern economies, requiring accurate forecasting to facilitate informed decision-making aligned with sustainable development goals. This study employs a novel, comprehensive system dynamics model comprising four subsystems: consumption, production, carbon emissions, and electricity trading. Our analysis reveals significant trends in Iran's electricity industry. The household sector is projected to become the largest energy consumer, with anticipated reductions in consumer sector subsidies over time. By 2040, total electricity production is forecasted to reach 862,835 million kWh, with renewable sources contributing only 3.3 percent. This trajectory is accompanied by a substantial increase in carbon emissions, reaching 448,383 tons, an alarming 2.6-fold surge compared to 2020. The private sector is anticipated to account for 70 percent of these emissions. Given the findings, prioritizing renewable electricity sources becomes imperative to align with sustainable development goals. Utilizing this integrated model, stakeholders can formulate informed strategies and interventions to navigate the evolving landscape of Iran's electricity sector. •It is expected that the most consuming sector will be the household sector.•CO2 emissions of electricity production in thermal power plants will increase 2.5 times from 2002 to 2040.•In Iran, electricity losses are much higher than its exports, and the ratio of losses to exports will reach 5.42 in 2040.•If the current situation continues, Iran will face a severe shortage of electricity.