Design–operation gap caused by parameter variance in HVAC system control sequences: A simulation-based study on energy efficiency and temperature controllability

During the design phase, the annual energy consumption of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems is frequently simplified or fixed under certain assumptions due to uncertain parameters within the control sequence, resulting in a performance gap between the intended and actual performances. This study assessed the impact of six uncertain parameters on system energy consumption and indoor temperature control under various updating scenarios. First, sensitivity analysis was conducted using the one-at-a-time method to identify the influential impact of the single uncertain parameter. Then, mutual impact analysis was conducted to showcase how different parameters affect each other, and mixed impact analysis was applied to evaluate how intended design performance converges to actual operating outcomes. A detailed physical model of a single-zone variable air volume system was developed to enable a comprehensive evaluation across different operational conditions. The results indicate that a 10% change in some parameters can lead to a 20∼30% increase in energy consumption, especially during low-load winter months. Properly evaluating the influence of one parameter is difficult without taking the effects of additional parameters into account, and some combinations of parameters can significantly decrease the system performance. These results underscore the necessity of considering the updating and combination scenarios of different parameters within the control sequences during the design phase. [Display omitted] •Assesses how uncertain parameters affect system performance across different phases.•System performance in low-load seasons is more sensitive to parameter variations.•The impact of a single uncertain parameter relies on the status of other parameters.•Certain parameter combinations can lead to large deviations in temperature control.•Showcases the convergence of performance across design phases to actual operations.