Park conservation or degradation? iCLUE modelling of land use change projections in the upper Manafwa watershed on Mount Elgon, Uganda

•Historical land use changes were a basis for iCLUE modelling of future LULC.•Natural cover conversion by agriculture and built-up will threaten primary forest.•Dominant cover by 2050 are agriculture (44%) and tropical forest low-stocked (23%).•Encroachment is mostly determined by park boundary management and law enforcement.•Participants agreed with the model outcomes and used them to develop a workplan. Land use changes result from interactions between different factors over time. Land use models support natural resource conservation by helping stakeholders to understand and predict these changes. Through such model-based projections, governments and conservationists can identify hotspots of encroachment and formulate informed decisions for sustainable conservation. Land use on Mount Elgon has undergone rapid changes in the conservation area and community land since the 1970s. Park encroachment has threatened natural cover due to population pressure and increasing demand for agricultural land. To support conservation efforts, this study conducted near-future potential land use change projections using historical land use change and iCLUE model simulations. This study established hotspots of land use conversion, locations of park encroachment and the extent of land use intensification in the upper Manafwa watershed of Mount Elgon. The study applied remote sensing, a geographic information system, and a land use change model (iCLUE), while considering nine land use classes to project land use change for 2030, 2040 and 2050 using a “business-as-usual” scenario. Stakeholder verification of the model output was conducted in a dedicated workshop. The results showed that in 2050, agriculture (44.24%) and low-stocked tropical high forest (22.56%) will be the largest land cover classes with bushland and shrubs as the smallest land cover classes (∼0.5%). Most of the land use conversion in the park is projected to occur along the boundary of the conservation area by agriculture and built-up areas. This study will guide stakeholders and decision makers in planning future sustainable management strategies to conserve and enhance remaining forest tracts in Mount Elgon.