A novel methodology for dynamic vulnerability assessment of storage tank exposed to technological hazards

Storage tanks are vulnerable to catastrophic technological hazards such as fires or explosions. Although many attempts have been made to assess the tank vulnerability exposed to a certain fire or explosion, little attention has been paid to the uncertainties of diverse accident scenarios and time-dependent damage effects. In this paper, a novel methodology is developed to dynamically estimate the vulnerability of chemical storage tank, while the static and dynamic factors related to tank vulnerability are studied in a unified framework. The uncertainties in the evolution of technological hazard are discretized and assessed using the dynamic event tree, in which the dynamic possibility of ignition and potential scenario transition are taken into account. Furthermore, a detailed study of the dynamic consequence and time-dependent damage behavior of physical effects is conducted, supporting a more accurate assessment of tank vulnerability. The case study demonstrates that the developed methodology could simulate the stochastic process of spatio-temporal evolution of technological hazards and enable a comprehensive analysis of damage patterns over time. Besides, the protection and mitigation effects of different safety barriers are evaluated and discussed, the results are valuable for reducing the risks of tank farms. •A methodology to dynamically evaluate tank vulnerability is proposed.•Static and dynamic uncertainties related to vulnerability assessment are discussed.•Scenario evolution of technological hazards is explored and modeled in a timeline.•The effect of safety barriers on reducing tank vulnerability is analyzed.