Evaluation on consequences prediction of fire accident in emergency processes for oil-gas storage and transportation by scenario deduction

This paper takes the safety in emergency processes as the starting point, from the perspective of scenario deduction, to study the consequences of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation. Through the statistical analysis of actual accident cases, 19 frequently occurring basic scenarios in emergency processes are summarized. The scenario evolution paths of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation are given by analyzing the evolution law of the accident development. Fuzzy numbers are introduced to express experts' qualitative judgment on accident scenarios. The empirical probabilities of scenario nodes are obtained by defuzzification calculation, and the state probability of each scenario node is calculated by using the dynamic Bayesian network joint probability formula. Under the comprehensive consideration about the probability statistics of actual accident cases, the critical scenario nodes on the evolution path and their final scenario probabilities are jointly determined to realize the optimization of the scenario evolution path. By constructing the correlation between the optimized scenario evolution path and the accident consequences, an accident consequence prediction model is established. The occurrence probability of accident consequences is calculated by the defuzzification method and dynamic Bayesian network. The accuracy of the consequence prediction model is verified by the July 16 Dalian's Xingang Harbor oil pipeline explosion accident. The research results provide scientific basis for helping decision makers to make the effective emergency measures that are most conducive to the rapid elimination of accidents and reducing the severity of accident consequences. •19 basic scenarios of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation.•The scenario evolution paths are established based on the PSR model.•The accident consequence prediction model by scenario deduction is established.•4 indicators of consequence severity are calculated by defuzzification method and DBN.