Global thresholds for the climate-driven effects of vegetation restoration on runoff and soil erosion

[Display omitted] •The effect of soil erosion decreased with increasing MAP when MAP exceeded 331 mm.•Grassland revegetation more effectively decreased runoff and soil erosion in the North Temperate Zone.•Below 48 mm/h, soil erosion decreased with increasing rainfall intensity. Runoff generation is intimately related to topography, climate, and vegetation. However, the combined impacts of different vegetation restorations on runoff under global climate change have not been quantitatively assessed. When climate exceeds specific thresholds, the inhibitory effect of vegetation restoration on runoff may diminish. Here, we collected 771 observations for meta-analysis and used segmented regression to determine the global threshold response of vegetation restoration for climate-related variables on runoff and soil erosion. We found the effect of vegetation restoration in inhibiting soil erosion and runoff increased when MAP (mean annual precipitation) exceeded the thresholds of about 331 mm and 540 mm, respectively. Furthermore, at rainfall intensity above the threshold of 48 mm/h, the effect of vegetation restoration on erosion control increases. Comprehensive analysis indicates that grassland revegetation is more successful in decreasing of runoff and soil erosion in the North Temperate Zone. Temperature and precipitation directly or indirectly influenced the effects of shrubland runoff reduction, and the relationship varied with changes in temperature and precipitation. Our findings contribute to guiding regional governments and decision makers in developing and implementing rational vegetation restoration measures for sustainable water resource management in the future.