Rapid identification of back-flow in three distributaries of Jingjiang Reach, middle Yangtze River, China

•Empirical formulae for estimating normal-/back- flow discharge at distributary ends.•Function charts for rapid identification of three back-flow forms in distributaries.•Contributions of driving factors to flow discharge change at distributary ends. Unusual back-flow events occurred in 2015 and 2017 at the near-mainstream ends of the three distributaries of the Jingjiang Reach, middle Yangtze River, China. It is presently challenging to precisely quantify back-flow discharges at river distributary ends where normal-flow discharges are measured chronically. This problem is more complicated at the ends of the three Jingjiang distributaries, each of which is more than 100 km long, and thus favors the generation of different back-flow forms. We use empirical formulae based on the Saint-Venant Equation and the Fall Index Method to quantify impacts on flow discharges at the two ends of each distributary of three key hydrodynamic variables: (1) water discharge at Zhicheng hydrological station, (2) total discharge from the four southwest tributary rivers, and (3) water levels at the two ends of the distributaries. We use the variable control approach to identify the contribution ratios of natural and human driving factors to flow discharges at the two ends of the distributaries during five historical stages. The empirical formulae provide reasonable results, with high values of correlation coefficients (R2 = 0.84 ∼ 0.98) obtained, demonstrating that the total water discharge from the four southwest tributary rivers is negligible. These formulae perform well in reproducing observed flow discharges at the two ends of the distributaries, especially the maximum discharges and cumulative volumes for normal-flow and back-flow events. Three charts are devised for different flow conditions at the two ends, from which back-flow events can be rapidly identified. Before impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), riverbed adjustment caused by the lower Jingjiang Cutoff Projects and the Gezhou Dam contributed the most to flow discharge changes (≥50 %) at the near-mainstream ends of the distributaries. Afterwards, precipitation dominated (>60 %). In the future, back-flow events are expected only to occur at Mituosi (i.e., Taipingkou) and Nanxian hydrological stations, for which optimal reservoir operation and water resource utilization could remedy the back-flow crisis. Use of climate models and more advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS are recommended to enhan