Assessment of local outburst flood risk from successive landslides: Case study of Baige landslide-dammed lake, upper Jinsha river, eastern Tibet

•Baige landslides induced dam breaches were back-analyzed.•Two parameters (Effective dam height and Narrowing rate) were proposed to analyze geometry that influences the successive dam breaches and outburst floods.•Effective dam height dominates peak discharge with linear rate of 1009.4 m3/s/m.•Locally narrowing and lifting effects both promote to form subsequent dam with high effective dam height with high flood risk. Two large landslides in October and November 2018 sequentially dammed the Jinsha river at Baige village, eastern Tibet, China. Subsequently, breaching of each dam induced massive outburst floods that posed a severe threat to downstream cities and infrastructure. Field investigation indicates volumes of the first and second landslide dam are about 24.5 × 106 m3 and 8.53 × 106 m3, respectively. However, the peak discharge of the flood generated from the second landslide (3.1 × 104 m3/s) was significantly larger than that from the first (1.0 × 104 m3/s). The second peak discharge would have been 5.15 × 104 m3/s if the dam breached naturally. In this study, we developed two geometry parameters: effective dam height He (elevation difference between overtopping level and river bottom) and a narrowing number distribution Nr(H) (measures the degree to which a river section is occupied by landslide materials to elevation H) which represents river section narrowing effects of successive landslides. Using numerical simulations, we show that He dominates peak discharge, and it has a linear relationship with peak discharge with slope of 1009.4 m2/s. Furthermore, the dam includes two sub-areas: a higher part (SB-1) and a lower part (SB-2). Two floods only eroded SB-2. However, breaching of SB-1 and breached SB-2 still narrowed the river. The narrowing effects of the first and second breached dam on the river channel are around 0.35 and 0.5, respectively. Spillway and landslide runup deposits increased the local flood risk by narrowing and lifting the local river section; the first landslide promoted the second landslide, which occupied the same area and forms a dam with high He value. Consequently, a more catastrophic flood could be triggered by a small subsequent landslide. Spatial superposition phenomenon of successive landslides increased the local flood risk. This research quantitatively analyzed the influence of the geometry of dam induced by successive landslides on the process of outburst floods and the risk.