Modeling oasis dynamics driven by ecological water diversion and implications for oasis restoration in arid endorheic basins

[Display omitted] •Water diversion effectively drives the ecohydrological recovery of an oasis.•A simple ecohydrological model is developed for modeling oasis dynamics.•The model is reasonably structured, reliable, and practical.•Oasis dynamic simulation provides implications for management.•An optimal volume of water diversion exists with maximum water benefit. To achieve sustainable development, ecological water diversion has been implemented as a management tool to recover degraded oasis ecosystems in arid endorheic basins. Aiming to explore oasis response and identify appropriate objectives for oasis restoration, this study used a conceptual lumped ecohydrological model. Qingtu Oasis in the Shiyang River basin, Northwest China, was used as a case study to test this model. The model coupled groundwater budget, oasis response, and evapotranspiration dynamic modules. The model structure was clear and reasonable, and the calculation was of low cost. The application in Qingtu Oasis verified the model's effectiveness. The model was able to effectively capture the ecohydrological response attributed to the recovering of Qingtu Oasis in response to ecological water diversions occurring during the last decade. Combined with scenario analysis, the simulation indicated that Qingtu Oasis was fragile and largely dependent on ecological water diversion. Ecological responses were positive and non-linearly correlated with water input, resulting in an optimal water input that produced maximum water benefit by minimum water consumption. The ideal point method was useful in identifying this cost-effective water volume for oasis restoration. For Qingtu Oasis, the optimal water diversion was 45 million m3, which would recover the oasis to 29.16 km2 with an NDVI of 0.41. The current oasis conditions approach the optimal status, and ecological water diversion was suggested to continue and maintain the current oasis status. The volume of 45 million m3 could be taken as an upper threshold of water diversion, because above this threshold, water consumption would not result in water benefits effectively. This study proposed a practical tool for ecohydrological process simulation.