Examining the evolution trajectory of construction and demolition waste in China: An empirical analysis based on spatial metrology and the environmental Kuznets curve

Curbing the increasing construction and demolition waste (C&DW) is critical for achieving China's goals of cleaner production and environmental sustainability. This paper based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and combining spatial econometrics with the GM (1,1) model, predicts key time points that will change the growth trend of C&DW and explores measures to reduce production. The results indicate that: (1)As of 2022, more than 87% of China's regional C&DW is unevenly distributed and agglomeration exists. More than 50% of the regions exhibit “high-high” agglomeration, which can lead to an inevitable inter-regional transfer of C&DW, but the central region has formed a “segregation zone”. (2) The evolution trajectory of C&DW shows a “growth-decline-regrowth” pattern, with points of change for regrowth occurring when GDP per capita reaches 142,914.24. Construction enterprises and consumption levels contribute significantly to C&DW, while the opposite is true for education, market competition, and transportation. (3) More than 95% of regions will experience C&DW regrowth during 2036–2040. Economic development is no longer considered to play a leading role in C&DW reduction measures. Even if the economic growth rate is increased by 10%, 30%, or even 50%, C&DW will enter the era of full-scale regrowth only three years earlier on average. This paper aims to shift the current focus of C&DW forecasting from solely on model innovation to accurately calculating the timing of future C&DW regrowth by verifying the EKC hypothesis application. This approach fills the gap in the quantitative analysis of long-term C&DW forecasting and provides new empirical cases for the theory of environmental economics. Furthermore, it addresses potential obstacles for decision-makers in achieving “zero waste cities”, thereby promoting global cleaner production and environmental sustainability. [Display omitted] •The trajectory of C&DW will show “growth-decline-regrowth” pattern.•GM(1,1) is used to forecast economic growth to mitigate bias due to data accessibility.•The impact of economic growth on C&DW yield will gradually weaken.•C&DW in China will experience explosive growth over the next 10 years.