Mapping and assessing supply and demand of crop pollination services in Shandong Province, China

Urban expansion and large-scale expansion of intensive agriculture have resulted in loss and fragmentation of pollinator habitats, posing a significant threat to the pollination services they provide. Owing to rapid changes in land use and agricultural planting structure, it is critical to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of supply, demand, and supply-demand balances of pollination services to ensure that pollination capacity meets the requirements of crop production. This study was conducted in an agroecosystem situated in the Shandong province, eastern China, the largest agriculture output value province in China, and the spatio-temporal dynamics of the pollination services that can support the agricultural demand from 1990 to 2018 were assessed. We quantified and mapped pollination demand, pollination capacity, and supply-demand (mis)matches of pollination during 1990–2018. The pollination results indicated that supply, demand, and supply-demand matches of pollination services decreased during the last three decades, and that the entire province of Shandong was on the verge of pollination imbalances in 2018. Moreover, in 28.99% of the province, there is a severe imbalance between pollination supply and demand, resulting in unmet needs and posing a threat to crop production. Regarding spatial patterns, supply, demand, and supply-demand matches of pollination services were heterogeneous in the province, and individually targeted conservation in different regions should be devised by the local government. We provided a spatially-explicit framework to identify spatial patterns linking pollination capacity and crop demand and optimize pollination-related management to ensure agricultural sustainability and crop production. •Supply, demand, and supply-demand matches of pollination declined in Shandong province.•In total, 34.93% area of the province showed imbalance in wild bee pollination supply.•Targeted conservation in various regions should be prioritized based on pollination patterns.