Comprehensive assessment of land use carbon emissions of a coal resource-based city, China

Carbon emissions reduction is crucial for global sustainable development. While few studies pay attention to land use carbon emissions (LUCEs) in coal-based cities. We firstly used the emission factor method proposed by IPCC to estimate the carbon sources and carbon sinks of land use in Huainan, a typical city of China, from 1991 to 2020. Then we used Logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model and Tapio decoupling elasticity to identify the driving factors of land use carbon emission changes and analyze their intrinsic relationship with economic growth of Huainan. The results revealed that the total LUCEs in Huainan increased significantly, and the carbon sources from land use were always higher than the carbon sinks. It also showed that economic development and built-up land change were the main driving factors of LUCEs growth in Huainan. Moreover, LUCEs had a synergistic relationship with the decoupling elasticity of economic growth in different development stages of the coal-based city. Therefore, we predicted LUCEs in Huainan City from 2020 to 2035 under three scenarios. Finally, we proposed some recommendations to reduce the LUCEs and develop the low-carbon economy. We hope to not only extend the research of land use carbon emissions on coal-based city level, but also promote the low-carbon development of coal-based cities in China. •A model of land use carbon emissions (LUCEs) of coal-based city was established.•LUCEs of Huainan increased during 1991–2020, and was mainly due to built-up land.•Carbon source was 20 times of sink, and both increased especially in recent decade.•Economic growth, built-up land change, and energy structure greatly affected LUCEs.•LUCE reduction measures to promote sustainable development were explored.