Techno-economic analysis of used cooking oil to jet fuel production under uncertainty through three-, two-, and one-step conversion processes

The application of renewable jet fuel is an eco-friendly technique that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Based on existing commercial processes, this study aimed to evaluate the hydro-conversion processes for producing renewable jet fuel. Three process scenarios were compared, in which the feedstock used cooking oil (UCO) is converted to hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel (HRJ) and its byproducts. Then, the investment feasibility of the three processes was evaluated through an economic analysis and predicted by an uncertainty analysis. The results show that if the main product (HRJ) is the profit target, one-step conversion is the best choice. However, if we consider the overall economic benefits, the three-step conversion method is more suitable with an average more 11.94% chance of profiting than the one-stage under uncertain analysis, which means it is a considerably competitive approach with lower risk and only 0.31 $/L of minimum selling price of jet fuel (MJSP), because it has the advantages of a wider range application and higher value of byproducts which reduce the risk of a single factor contribution. From the sensitivity analysis, jet fuel price is the key factor which contributes 75–82% for one- and two-stage processes, but UCO price in three-stage process reach nearly 50%. In addition, due to the economic scale, scaling up the plant capacity will lead higher economic benefits. Therefore, an efficient UCO recovery system and three-stage process are the keys for the industrial development aspect through the value-chain analysis under uncertainty. [Display omitted] •One-, Two- and three-step processes for producing renewable jet fuel are compared.•Three-stage process will have an average more 11.94% chance of profiting.•Jet fuel price contributes 75–82% for one and two-stage processes.•UCO recovery system is important due to the benefits from scaling up the capacity.•Three-step process is the most suitable one for overall economic benefits.