Analysis of the factors that affect the production of municipal solid waste in China

Municipal solid waste (MSW) has received extensive attention due to its large output volume and role in urban mining. Currently the main waste disposal methods in China are sanitary landfill and incineration, but due to technological limitations, MSW causes enormous pressure on the environment and natural resources. Based on panel data of 258 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016, this paper adopts an expanded stochastic impact by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model with the difference-in-difference (DID) method to study the impact of waste charging policy and key socio-economic variables on MSW and test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The findings support a reasonable formulation of MSW and urban mining management strategies and policies. The results suggest that the implementation of waste charging policy reduced the generation of MSW, especially in the central region but has not affected the northeastern region. A significant N-shaped curve, U-shaped curve or inverted N-shaped curve exists between MSW generation and economic growth at the national level and in various areas, but no evidence supporting the traditional EKC hypothesis is found. The total amount of MSW will not decrease in a short term. Increased population and urbanization promote the generation of MSW. Increased gas penetration rate has reduced MSW, especially in Central and Western China. The share of tertiary industry has a positive relationship with MSW, especially in the eastern region, but has a negative relationship with it in the northeastern region. According to the results of the empirical analysis, policy suggestions are proposed in accordance with the national situation and regional characteristics.