Planning sustainable urban landscape under the stress of climate change in the drylands of northern China: A scenario analysis based on LUSD-urban model

Optimization of the urban landscape composition and configuration through initiative planning is important to sustainable development of the drylands of northern China (DNC). Taking the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as an example, this paper developed an approach of sustainable urban landscape planning (SULP) under the stress of climate change in the DNC. First, we quantify the amount of water resources under the future climate change impacts (CCI). Then, we adjust the urban land area based on water resources carrying capacity constraints. Finally, we use the LUSD-urban (Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban) model to adjust the configuration of the urban landscape to avoid occupying important natural habitats and corridors, prime croplands, and floodplains. We find that the SULP can effectively mitigate the comprehensive effects of regional urban landscape dynamics on water resources, food security, ecological security, and flood risks. By performing the SULP, prime croplands, floodplains, and important natural habitats and corridors occupied by urban land will decrease by 2,187 km2, 750 km2, and 130 km2, respectively, during the period of 2015–2050 in the APTZNC. We also find that the proposed approach can effectively manage the impacts of climate change on water resource capacity and reduce water stress of the entire APTZNC and its sub-regions. Thus, the proposed SULP approach and the experiences from the case study in the APTZNC are helpful for guiding urban landscape planning to achieve sustainable development of cities in the DNC and even in the drylands around the world. •Sustainable urban landscape planning under the stress of climate change was performed.•Urban land area was adjusted based on water resources carrying capacity constraints.•Urban landscape configuration was adjusted to avoid occupying important areas.•The planning can mitigate the comprehensive effects of urban landscape dynamics.•Addressing the climate change impacts should be incorporated into urban landscape planning.