Range distribution of the invasive alien species Calotropis procera in South America dry environments under climatic change scenarios

Biological invasion is one of the main causes of biodiversity losses throughout the world. Dry areas are particularly prone to such losses due to their highly adapted flora and pronounced difficulty recovering after deforestation. Calotropis procera (Apocynaceae) has been recognized as an invasive alien species (IAS) in South America, forming vast clusters in disturbed areas or coastal sandy areas. The presence of IASs is expected to be influenced by climate changes, in this regard, we aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on the distribution of this species under the present conditions and under two different future scenarios. The presence of C. procera was positively correlated with the dry environments in South America, such as the Seasonal Dry Forests in all scenarios. In turn, high suitabilities were also found for coastal dunes and Restinga vegetation. The area of invasion is reduced for future conditions models, however the suitability clearly increases. The presence of C. procera as an IAS might be considered a threat for conservation in disturbed or deforested areas, with particular attention to open sandy areas, where this species is an efficient competitor. •Climate change will influence the distribution of the IAS Calotropis procera.•Dunes and Seasonal Dry Forests are the main areas of invasion for this species.•The predicted biomes of invasion did not vary with climate change.•The conditions with climate change raises in the suitable areas.