Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM

•NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM were used to determine an optimized monitoring network for a commercial-scale CO2 storage project.•NRAP-Open-IAM revealed that maximum simulated leakage rates of brine were small and could be detected during the injection phase.•These NRAP tools can be used to define a risk-based, and substantially shorter, PISC period for the site.•This study serves as a first-of-its-kind effort to apply NRAP tools to evaluate components of a commercial-scale Class VI UIC permit.•This study provides a foundation for broader application and adoption of these NRAP tools by the CCS community. Modeling was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the NRAP toolset, specifically NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM, to determine a risk-based PISC period and optimized monitoring network for a commercial-scale CO2 storage project. Realizations from NRAP-Open-IAM revealed that maximum simulated leakage rates of brine were small, on the order of 10−5 kg/s, and maximum simulated leakage rates of CO2 were on the order of 10-3 kg/s, and could be detected earliest during the injection phase in the Ironton-Galesville, the thief zone immediately overlying the injection reservoir. Using this information to design an optimized monitoring well network eliminated one of the three originally planned monitoring wells, resulting in a cost reduction for the project. Perhaps the most significant finding from this effort is that NRAP-Open-IAM can be used to define a risk-based, and substantially shorter, PISC period for the site. NRAP-Open-IAM realizations indicate that the majority of risk of endangerment to USDWs decreases within the first 5 years after CO2 injection ends. Doubling this timeframe would still lead to a net PISC period reduction of 40-years and an operational cost reduction in excess of $50 M for the project. This study serves as a first-of-its-kind effort to apply NRAP tools to evaluate components of a commercial-scale Class VI UIC permit and provides a foundation for broader application and adoption by the CCS community.