Do spatial and sociodemographic factors affect the transmission pattern of COVID-19? Evidence from Surabaya City, Indonesia

The COVID-19 pandemic has attracted the attention of researchers from different disciplines, including urban studies. Researchers have revealed different spatial and sociodemographic factors affecting both the transmission of COVID-19 and the number of cases and deaths. This study aims to understand the association between regional spatial and sociodemographic characteristics and the dynamics of COVID-19 in Surabaya city, Indonesia, a COVID-19 epicenter. The analysis is based on the COVID-19 cumulative cases per 100,000 population from March to December 2020. To investigate the spatial and sociodemographic factors affecting the transmission of COVID-19, spatial autocorrelation and nonparametric correlation analyses were used. The Moran's I index results revealed that COVID-19 cases are clustered in specific parts of Surabaya. Significant agglomerations were found between high-case regions and low-case regions. In addition, 14 sub-districts were identified as hotspots in the southern Surabaya. The association between spatial and sociodemographic factors and COVID-19 cases was explored using Spearman rank correlation and Kendall tau analysis. The study found that population density, distance to hotspot, distance to airport, and distance to bus station had negative correlation, while the total area and distance to port had a positive correlation with the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in Surabaya.