Potential influence of cognitive bias on decision-making in a flood scenario

This study focuses on the possible mathematical correlation between the indexes (Gravelius, flood, and hazard) that characterize the propensity of a territory to suffer flooding, and the potential damage caused to the public. This characterization quantifies the level of threat of flood damage which in turn is combined with the Dunning-Kruger coefficient. The second one is created in this work in order to consider the cognitive influence exerted by decision-makers on the risk perception. This combination allows us to estimate how much the intellectual self-perception of the decision-makers influences the results, thus offering a new perspective for the assessment of natural disaster management. From this estimate, it is possible to establish a different perspective which takes into account the interaction between threat and responsiveness of decision-makers for the projection of damage to human life in the event of a flood.