To move home or move on? Investigating the impact of recovery aid on migration status as a potential tool for disaster risk reduction in the aftermath of volcanic eruptions in Merapi, Indonesia

Disasters are associated strongly with forced migration. Indeed, migration is a standard survival strategy for those facing disruptions of this kind. Such is the case with Mt. Merapi, Indonesia, where a series of eruptions occurred in 2010. Mechanisms related to forced migration in such scenarios are fairly well understood, yet it remains less clear what factors may influence return migration. Given local interest in facilitating resettlement out of hazardous areas as a means of risk reduction, our objective in this study is to explore the extent to which recovery aid may create incentives for households to move on rather than move home. Specifically, we explore whether the influence of recovery aid varied by whether it was: financial vs. another type of aid; provided by a government agency or NGO versus a social network; and/or distributed with other types of recovery aid. We use data from a cross-sectional pilot study and multinomial logistic regression models to explore the influence of aid on migration status. Of the various forms of aid considered, financial recovery aid was consistently associated with moving on. The combination of financial recovery aid with remittances resulted in an association with having moved on that was even stronger than just receiving financial recovery aid. Ultimately, analyses of “aid packages” suggest that a combination of aid was relatively more effective in fostering resettlement, suggesting that while other forms of aid may not have been sufficient to increase resettlement by themselves, they may enhance the effect of financial recovery aid.