Local development, metropolitan sustainability and the urbanization-suburbanization nexus in the Mediterranean region: A quantitative exercise

The present study investigates the influence of economic growth and socio-demographic change on long-term urbanization and suburbanization processes in a divided region of Southern Europe (Athens, Greece). A two-block Partial Least Squares (tPLS) analysis decomposed metropolitan growth into distinctive processes of local development in ‘central’ and ‘peripheral’ areas considering changes over time (1966–2008) in 14 indicators representative of multifaceted territorial dynamics in the Mediterranean space. By quantifying the bi-directional (spatio-temporal) propagation of socioeconomic impulses, the empirical results of tPLS have delineated substantial differences in the development path of inner cities and suburbs, fueling spatial divides in social conditions and increasingly heterogeneous processes of regional development. While inner cities experienced population growth and settlement densification, peripheral areas underwent rapid suburbanization with spatial concentration of economic functions and a generalized settlement dispersion. Providing further insights in the analysis of the differential mechanisms of metropolitan development in Western Europe, results of this study confirm the specificity of urbanization and suburbanization processes at the base of the increased polarization in central and peripheral areas typical of Mediterranean countries.