Future scenarios of commercial freight shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic

As climate warms and modern technologies advance, the Artic waters may offer new opportunities for shipping, notably in the Euro-Asian Arctic. This paper presents five alternative scenarios for commercial destination and transit shipping in the region until 2050. Using a pluralistic backcasting approach to foresight, these scenarios were co-created by the authors of this paper together with thirteen experts in relevant fields from seven different countries. The scenario-building exercise integrated global and regional factors and demonstrated that the future of commercial shipping in the Arctic is subject to vast uncertainties in global politics and global development trajectory alongside the sea ice conditions and technological progress. While the current volumes of commercial shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic are insignificant, its future will largely depend on the development of these factors and how they will interface with each other. Plausible futures of commercial shipping in the region range from extensive international transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route to restricted shipping by vessels with Arctic flags only or even no shipping, to shipping over the transpolar route. The scenarios presented here can be used to inform national policymaking as well as to support strategic decision-making within corporate entities operating in related industries. •Pluralistic backcasting led to five alternative plausible scenarios for shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic until 2050.•Global politics, development trajectory, climate, and technology are key factors to determine the future of shipping.•Plausible futures include extensive transit through the Northern Sea Route and shipping over the Transpolar Route.•Restricted shipping, no shipping, and shipping focused on exports of resources are also plausible.•Accounting for future uncertainty is essential for robust national and corporate planning involving shipping.