Towards Low-Carbon Agricultural Production: Evidence from China's Main Grain-Producing Areas

•This study employs the GDIM model and the ARDL method to examine several key drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain-producing areas of China.•Despite being a significant factor in agricultural carbon emissions, the impact of chemical fertilizer input shifted from a rising to a falling trend, confirming the existence of an agriculture-based CO2 EKC.•Agricultural mechanical application had a long-term inhibiting effect, while the aging of the agricultural labor force had a short-term driving effect. Low-carbon agricultural development is inseparable from the support of green finance. This study utilizes the GDIM model and the ARDL method to examine several key drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in China's main grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020. The objective is to offer a valuable policy framework for green finance in promoting low-carbon agricultural production. The results indicated that despite being a driving factor in agricultural carbon emissions, the effect of the chemical fertilizer input shifted from rising to falling, and an agriculture-based CO2 EKC was confirmed. Moreover, from the perspective of the causal links between agricultural carbon emissions and their drivers, this study found that chemical fertilizer input had both long- and short-term driving effects, agricultural mechanical application had a long-term inhibiting effect, and the aging of the agricultural labor force had a short-term driving effect. The findings of this paper will help policymakers develop green financial resources to guide capital towards low-carbon agricultural production.