Mathematical modelling and validation of Salmonella enterica growth in sushi exposed to different time-temperature scenarios found in real sushi establishments

[Display omitted] •Salmonella grew in sushi under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions (7–37 °C).•The model was validated in the worst-case scenario, built through restaurant visits.•Total Aerobic Mesophilic lag phase in sushi was ~11 h at 15 °C.•Salmonella lag phase in sushi was ~14 h at 15 °C.•Considering Salmonella, 6 h at 15 °C can be used in sushi buffet distribution. In this study mathematical models to predict Salmonella enterica growth in sushi at different temperatures were developed considering data obtained in 26 restaurants in Southern Brazil. The sushi type chosen to develop the models was the one that presented the highest total aerobic mesophilic counts among sushis collected in the establishments. Salmonella was inoculated (2–3 log UFC/g) in this sushi type prepared in the laboratory (pH 4.8; aw 0.98) and incubated under isothermal conditions at 7, 15, 20, 25 and 37 °C. Baranyi and Roberts model was used to describe Salmonella growth curves, generating R2 values of ≥0.98 and RMSE values of