Modelling driver's response to demand management strategies for electric vehicle charging in Australia

Electric vehicles (EVs) can help decarbonise transport as long as the energy sector successfully balances the electricity supply with the demand and maximises the use of renewable resources. For that, demand-side management strategies are necessary to encourage users to charge at certain times through time-of-use (ToU) tariffs or to control the load provided for charging (i.e., supplier-managed charging). However, adapting to different charging times can disrupt users' schedule flexibility. This study investigates consumer preferences for smart charging technology and control (user-managed or supplier-managed) and responses to progressive ToU tariff discounts for guiding changes in EV charging time in Australia. We analyse the potential of ToU tariffs in shifting demand to late-night hours and around midday when there is a peak in solar energy generation. Based on a sample of 994 drivers (including 97 EV owners), we estimated a multinomial choice model to identify key predictors of individual preference for smart charging management and a bivariate ordered model to investigate consumer response to time-of-use discounts. The results show that activity-travel behaviour is an important predictor of both demand-side management strategies. Consumers willing to change EV charging time in response to ToU tariffs are likely to have more flexible schedules, while those with more time constraints seek the practical benefits of smart charging. Current EV owners have higher propensities than potential adopters to choose supplier-managed smart charging and charge around midday in response to ToU tariffs. This indicates that trials with current EV owners may overestimate acceptance of these strategies. Our findings show that while monetary incentives can successfully shift an important share of consumers to night-time hours, these incentives are not very effective in shifting to midday charging. Synergy in formulating transport and energy demand strategies may be necessary to facilitate such a shift.