An institutional framework for energy transitions: Lessons from the Nigerian electricity industry history

Reducing the dominance of fossil-based electricity generation is a crucial strategy to address climate change. However, drivers impacting sustainable energy transitions, such as the high costs associated with the petroleum industry and other socio-political influences, such as cartels and subsidies, can delay, halt, or even revert decisions favoring renewable energy sources. Most traditional economic models often fail to consider the social, institutional, and historical interrelated and recursive relationships in energy systems decisions and planning. In this paper, we explored the historical institutions' dynamics in the Nigerian electricity industry to ascertain how they have impacted energy infrastructure and governance choices. Using the Multidimensional Institutional Dynamics Analysis (MIDA), we built a historical narrative of the Nigerian electricity industry dynamics covering the: imperial period (1896–1960); early independence period (1961–1970); military regime period (1971–1985); first economic reforms period (1986–1999); and intensive privatization period (2000−2020). The MIDA presents the complex cross-scale interactions and the broad set of drivers influencing energy transitions over time in Nigeria. We identified the leading environmental, social, and economic variables and proposed a framework, considering the agent's interests, which point to critical aspects of institutional change in Nigeria for each period: Imperial dominance and coal, military dominance, public governance and hydroelectricity, and hybrid governance focused on natural gas expansion. The framework highlights the broader conditions that influence Nigerian electricity infrastructures and governance choices for each period and might be suitable for policymakers identifying favorable contexts for renewable deployment.