To continue to burn something? Technological, economic and political path dependencies in district heating in Helsinki, Finland

•We study district heating in Helsinki as an example of the problems of transitioning to carbon neutrality.•The system is path-dependent on burning something.•The end of coal use leads to wood biomass burning, since wood burning emissions are accounted for differently from coal.•A potential green paradox emerges: emissions rise as a result of policies aiming at emission reductions. The transition away from fossil fuel based infrastructure for heating and cooling has to happen on a scale and timetable with no historical precedent. As the systems are large and networked, path-dependencies constrain the transition that is further complicated by the diversity of stakeholders. Here we analyze the case of transitioning the district heating system in the city of Helsinki, Finland, within the target of a carbon neutral metropolitan area. Despite relatively advanced climate policies, path-dependencies on the political, technological-material and economical levels interact in creating a ”wicked” problem with no obvious solution and potential for backsliding. It is in this context that a possibility of a green paradox arises: despite the explicit commitment of all stakeholders toward carbon dioxide emission reductions, the combination of the path-dependencies may result in a transition that increases emissions. Our results highlight policy implications of path-dependencies for researchers, government and business.