Multi-objective investment evaluation for low-carbon power system evolution based on system dynamics

•A multi-objective investment evaluation method is proposed with a dynamic mapping evolution model based on system dynamics.•Four aspects of power system development goal are analyzed with four sub-model, and each sub-model can be evaluated by its normalized weight index.•The proposed evaluation method can adapt the characteristics of low-carbon power system and can give policy support. The energy transition development path towards low carbon power systems requires considered investments for system design. A multi-objective investment evaluation method for power system evolution towards low-carbon is established based on multiple development goals including energy security, ecological protection, economic development and technology advancement. The four aspects are modeled based on system dynamics and provide collaborative quantitative evaluation for power system evaluation. Different evolution paths are simulated and analyzed with different policy scenarios, which verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results of several indices show that with strong enough policies, it is expected to achieve the CO2 peak around 2030. And accelerating the construction of electricity market reform can provide greater investment space. The ecological protection index has the largest weight in the multi-objective investment, requiring power system to deepen the low-carbon transition.