Swarm seismicity illuminates stress transfer prior to the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland

The 2021 Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption in the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, was followed by effusive lava outflow lasting six months. It was preceded by an intensive earthquake swarm lasting one month with the largest earthquake exceeding ML 5. We analyze seismic data recorded by the Reykjanet local seismic network to trace the processes leading to the eruption to understand the relation between seismic activity and magma accumulation. Precise relocations show two hypocenter clusters of the 2021 swarm in the depth range of 1-6 km; a NE-SW trending cluster that maps the dyke propagation, and a WSW-ENE trending cluster that follows the axis of the oblique plate boundary. Additionally, we relocated the preceding earthquake swarms of 2017, 2019 and 2020 and found that they form two branches along the oblique plate boundary, which coincide with the WSW-ENE trending cluster of the 2021 swarm. These branches form a stepover of ∼1 km offset, forming a pull-apart basin structure at the intersection with the dyke. This is the place where the eruption occurred, suggesting that magma erupted at the place of crustal weakening. The strong seismic activity started with a ML 5.3 earthquake of 24 February 2021, which triggered the aftershocks on the oblique plate boundary and in the area of magmatic dyke, both in an area of elevated Coulomb stress. The seismicity shows a complex propagation of the dyke, which started at its northern end, migrated southwestward and then jumped back to the central part where the effusive eruption took place. The observed N-S striking focal mechanisms are interpreted as right-lateral antithetic Riedel shears that accommodate the left lateral slip along the oblique plate boundary. The co-existence of seismic and magmatic activity suggests that the past seismic activity weakened the crust in the eruption site area, where magma accumulated. The following ML 5.3 earthquake of 24 February 2021 triggered the seismic swarm and likely perturbed the magma pocket which led to the six-months lasting eruption that started on 19 March. •Double-difference locations of pre-eruption Fagradalsfjall 2021 seismicity indicate activation of two main fault segments.•The NE-SW trending seismicity not accounted in previous swarms relates to magmatic dyke movements.•The eruptive fissure coincides with step-over in rift transform zone, at place of crustal weakening.•Coulomb stress reveals the mainshock is responsible for initiating the swarm and subsequent eruption