Modeling residential photovoltaic adoption: A system dynamics approach for solar energy expansion

Using a system dynamics approach and the Generalized Bass model, we model the diffusion of Photovoltaic System (PVS) adoption among Iranian households. The model recreates the interplay between economic, social capital, managerial, political, and technical factors influencing PVS adoption. While existing literature indicates that technology diffusion typically follows an S-shaped growth pattern, this is not true in Iran. Our research reveals that the deviation can be attributed to the low estimated values of innovation and imitation coefficients. Our study emphasizes the positive impact of factors such as society's awareness and interest, environmental concerns, and government-provided incentives while highlighting the negative influence of factors like inflation and increased payback periods on PVS adoption. This study provides insights for practitioners and policymakers to develop effective strategies for PVS adoption, fostering a sustainable energy future in Iran and other emerging nations. •This study utilizes system dynamics and Generalized Bass Model in PVS adoption.•This study uses scenario analysis and simulations to pinpoint key leverage points.•Awareness, environmental concerns, and government incentives are key factors.•Findings provide insights for policy-making, promoting PVS adoption strategies.