Impact of household electricity theft and unaffordability on electricity security: A case of Uganda

Renewable energy sources (RES) dominance in Uganda's electricity mix is challenged by affordability and theft. To assess electricity affordability, the study proposed a probabilistic method to quantify the households into different electricity categories for both urban and rural areas. Alternative electricity billing schemes based on Scenarios A to D for the households to enhance legal connection and consumption of electricity were proposed. The study established that the utility registers the highest electricity theft losses in rural households. The monthly utility revenue collected in urban areas was about 2.9 times that collected in rural areas because of the higher number of legally connected households with a monthly consumption of 1.5 times than that of rural households. From the monthly income spendable on electricity, rural and urban households could only afford 25.07 kWh and 38.29 kWh, respectively, which are less than the average household electricity consumption for Uganda. Also, the initial connection fee to the power grid is very high for the households to afford it in a single down payment. Of the proposed alternative billing schemes, Scenario B and Scenario D yield the least monthly utility revenue collected for the urban and rural households, respectively. •Electricity theft and affordability by households in Uganda was investigated.•A probabilistic method was utilized to categorize household electricity users.•Utility revenue collected and lost to electricity consuming households was evaluated.•Electricity affordability by households was assessed based on their income.•Alternative electricity billing schemes for household customers were proposed.