Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060

In China's building sector, annual embodied carbon emissions (EC) account for a larger proportion than operational emissions, unlike in developed economies. Investigating future EC trajectories, possible abatement potential, and roadmaps can better guide the low-carbon development of the building sector to tackle climate change. This study proposes a bottom-up building EC model, based on the dynamic building stock turnover model and process-based life cycle assessment model, to simulate China's building EC by 2060 under different policy scenarios. The abatement potential of various factors is discussed through the decomposition model and supplementary scenarios. Results indicate that building EC have reached the peak plateau, and by 2060, under the baseline scenario, will be 49% lower than 2020 levels. There is huge room for emission reduction, and the cumulative mitigation ranges from 20.9 to 45.3 billion tCO2 for alternative development scenarios between 2021 and 2060. New building area and material emission factors are the greatest contributors to mitigation potential. Therefore, controlling construction scale and reducing material supply-side emissions are critical strategies for alleviating building EC. Moreover, measures to extend the reasonable service life of existing and new buildings should be implemented as soon as possible to decrease unnecessary waste and emissions. •An embodied carbon emission assessment model of the building sector is developed.•Emission scenarios and the mitigation potential of the building sector are explored.•Embodied emissions of China's building sector have reached the peak plateau.•Controlling new building scale is the most effective strategy to reduce emissions.