Strategic transport fleet analysis of heavy goods vehicle technology for net-zero targets

This paper addresses the decarbonisation of the heavy-duty transport sector and develops a strategy towards net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) by 2040. By conducting a literature review and a case study on the vehicle fleet of a large UK food and consumer goods retailer, the feasibilities of four alternative vehicle technologies are evaluated from environmental, economic, and technical perspectives. Socio-political factors and commercial readiness are also examined to capture non-technical criteria that influences decision-makers. Strategic analysis frameworks such as PEST-SWOT models were developed for liquefied natural gas, biomethane, electricity and hydrogen to allow a holistic comparison and identify their long-term deployment potential. Technology innovation is needed to address range and payload limitations of electric trucks, whereas government and industry support are essential for a material deployment of hydrogen in the 2030s. Given the UK government's plan to phase out new diesel HGVs by 2040, fleet operators should commence new vehicle trials by 2025 and replace a considerable amount of their lighter diesel trucks with zero-emission vehicles by 2030, and the remaining heavier truck fleet by 2035. •PEST-SWOT models are used to analyse potentials of alternative vehicle technologies.•LNG, biomethane, hydrogen and all-electric solutions are reviewed and contrasted.•Decarbonisation roadmap is proposed to achieve net-zero HGV emissions by 2040.•Policy recommendations are proposed based on feedback from industry experts.•Fleet operators should commence trials of alternative vehicle technologies by 2025.