HK–SEIR model of public opinion evolution based on communication factors

Microblog, with its good interaction and convenient dissemination, has become the main platform for public opinion dissemination. How to discover the law of public opinion dissemination, and to identify the public opinion accurately have become the hot researches. In this paper, we define the user influence, topic popularity, topic interest to analysis the process of opinions fusion among the users under the interest and confidence threshold. We propose a new public opinion evolution HK–SEIR model which combines the opinion fusion HK and the epidemic transmission SEIR models. Firstly, the topic interest degree is added to the opinion fusion HK model, and the interaction behavior between the users under the interest and confidence threshold is analyzed. Then, we calculate the probability of topic propagation caused by the interaction of opinions between users under group pressure, and the probability that users change from the infected state to the removed state under topic popularity. Finally, we analyze the changes of the susceptible, exposed, infected and removed states in the process of public opinion communication. The experiment proves that the HK–SEIR model is closer to the work-rest rules of public opinion communication than SEIR, SIR model. The density peak time is closer to the peak of real public opinion communication. We find that the user interest is the main factor influencing the public opinion dissemination after the interaction of user opinions fusion reaches a certain degree. The negative public opinion of the higher proportion can easily reach the peak of public opinion propagation. •Defining and quantizing factors affected communication of public opinion.•Calculating topic popularity by user interaction behavior and temperature cooling law.•Constructing HK model based on the factors affected the public opinion evolution.•Constructing HK–SEIR model of opinion evolution combine HK model with SEIR model.•Analyzing the evolution of opinion, providing a new direction for opinion guidance.