How to control China's total amount of carbon emissions? An analysis of provincial allowance demands

Establishing a total amount control system for carbon emissions is crucial for China to achieve its carbon peak and neutrality targets. Given the heterogeneity among provinces, it is essential to consider provincial demands for carbon emission allowances (CEA) when allocating China's total amount target of carbon emissions. By identifying provincial preferences for different allocation criteria (equality, responsibility, capability, and efficiency), this study proposed a CEA allocation scheme that contributes to achieving China's 2030 carbon emission target with the least compromise among provinces. The results show that emission reduction efforts vary widely across provinces under any single-criterion scheme. Preferences for allocation criteria diverge among provinces, with a notable preference towards responsibility and equality. However, adhering to provincial expectations for CEA could jeopardize the attainment of national emission reduction target. The least-compromise allocation scheme integrates various criteria while weighting them differently: equality (0.42), responsibility (0.28), efficiency (0.16), and capability (0.14). Considering the varying pressure for emission reduction among provinces, it is vital to formulate differentiated policies and measures. •Provincial emission situations and demands are considered in this study.•Provinces exhibit diverse preferences for different allocation criteria.•The proposed scheme achieves emission targets with the least compromise.•Equality and responsibility criteria deserve greater emphasis.•Differentiated policies are crucial for effective emission reduction.