China's future energy vision: Multi-scenario simulation based on energy consumption structure under dual carbon targets

In the face of global environmental problems, China has advanced a “dual-carbon" target, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will be more than 25 % in 2030 and more than 80 % in 2060. Considering this goal as the starting point, this study applies the system dynamics method and combines different types of sectors and energy consumption structures to model China's energy consumption system. Through multi-scenario simulations of different energy consumption structures, the study finds that: (1) the growth rate of energy consumption and energy consumption structure are the main factors affecting carbon emissions; (2) industrial carbon emissions follow the changes in total carbon emissions, and the industry is the most important and challenging sector for solving the problem of carbon emissions; (3) under the premise of optimizing the energy consumption structure, China can achieve peak carbon in 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060; (4) under the inertia of social development and energy structure, the energy demand of the tertiary sector is expanding, and natural gas is an unquestionable choice for China as a transitional energy source. •China has the possibility and ability to achieve the dual carbon goal on schedule.•Industry is the sector with the greatest impact on carbon emissions.•Coal is the energy source with the highest sensitivity now.•Natural gas is the great transitional energy source.