The effect of the multi-target energy and climate policy on carbon emissions: County-level evidence from China

The use of command-and-control target policies for climate governance is crucial in achieving China's “dual carbon” goals. We investigate the impact of multi-target policy on county-level carbon emissions, using the generalized difference-in-differences model for the gradual implementation at different phases of multiple policies. We find that the Carbon Intensity Reduction Target (CIRT) and Total Energy Consumption Target (TECT) policies promote carbon reduction, while the Energy Intensity Reduction Target (EIRT) policy has less reliable outcomes. In the eastern and central regions, the initial phase of carbon reduction is primarily propelled by the EIRT policy, subsequently transitioning to the dominant influence of the CIRT policy. In the later phase, carbon reduction in the eastern region is predominantly attributed to the CIRT policy, whereas in the central region, it results from the combined effects of the EIRT, CIRT, and TECT policies. In the western region, early policies have an insignificant impact on carbon reduction, and the later-phase effects shift from being primarily influenced by the EIRT to being predominantly influenced by the CIRT. Additionally, neglecting the impact of other policies with similar targets during the same period may lead to overestimation of the effects of EIRT and TECT and underestimation of the effect of CIRT. •Command-and-control target policies are crucial for China's “dual carbon” goals.•The effectiveness of climate policies varies by timing and region.•Carbon intensity reduction targets consistently reduce emissions.•Combining multiple policies effectively cuts carbon emissions.