The effectiveness of future financial benefits on PV adoption — Evidence from Belgium

We assess the effect of different incentive schemes with future financial benefits on photovoltaic (PV) adoption patterns in the residential sector for the two biggest regions of Belgium - Flanders and Wallonia. Due to variation in incentive schemes across the regions and within regions across months, we can identify the effect of changes in future benefits on adoption. We combine and compare three distinct and widely used incentive schemes for PV, namely output-based, capacity-based and net metering, which is electricity cost saving-based. We find that PV adoption in the residential sector is highly sensitive to overall future financial benefits. A one percent increase in overall benefits per kW of installed capacity increases the number of installations by around 6%. However, the different incentive schemes have varying degrees of effectiveness. In particular, capacity- and output-based incentive schemes, which directly compensate households with a fixed price per produced amount of electric energy or per installed capacity annually are around 6 percentage points more effective in fostering PV uptake than the cost saving-based net metering, which depends on future electricity prices and production. Furthermore, the average size of new installations depends on whether incentive schemes remunerate for additional capacity. •We assess the impact of incentive schemes on residential PV uptake in Belgium.•Output- and capacity-based incentives are 6 p.p. more effective than net metering.•Average capacity depends on an incentive’s remuneration for additional capacity.•Payoff uncertainty and salience may explain the difference in effectiveness.