Short-term industrial load forecasting based on error correction and hybrid ensemble learning

Accurate industrial load forecasting is a prerequisite for ensuring the smooth operation of the power system. Due to the strong fluctuation and complex characteristics of industrial loads, it is difficult to accurately predict short-term power demand. To address this issue, this paper proposes a deep learning prediction model based on hybrid ensemble and error correction. The proposed model is divided into two phases: in the first phase, deep power features are extracted from multivariate data through a hybrid ensemble strategy consisting of Random Subspace, Boosting, Ensemble Pruning, and Multi-Objective Molecular Dynamics Theory Optimization Algorithm (MMDTOA). First, the strategy splits high-dimensional industrial data into multiple sub-datasets. Subsequently, for the features of each sub-dataset, the proposed MMDTOA is applied to perturb the parameters of GRU to generate base learning machines that balance accuracy and diversity. Finally, these base learning machines are integrated by kernel ridge regression stacking. Among them, the two-stage selection strategy and co-evolutionary strategy are embedded into the MMDTOA to enhance the optimization searching effect; in the second stage, a combined error correction strategy is proposed by utilizing the residual information in the prediction results. By combining the dynamic Gaussian error correction function and GRU error correction model, the prediction accuracy of the ensemble model is further improved; Experimental results on real Korean datasets show that the proposed method achieves a minimum value of 3.684% and 7.266% in NMAE and NRMSE, which outperforms eight comparative models, such as SVM, ELM, and CNN, with higher accuracy and robustness.