Dynamic modelling of operational energy use in a building LCA: A case study of a Belgian office building

Strict energy performance requirements have reduced the building's operational energy use and related environmental impact in the past decades. Consequently, the embodied impacts of buildings gained importance, and hence focussing on the life cycle impacts has become essential to further reduce the environmental impact of buildings. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an internationally accepted method used for this purpose. Current LCA studies of buildings typically look at their whole life cycle but ignore potential changes in operational energy use due to climate change. However, the latter is expected to influence the operational energy use of buildings to a significant extent. This paper aims to improve the assessment of the operational phase by including variations in the yearly operational energy use caused by climate change and expected changes in the electricity mix as a strategy for climate change mitigation. This adapted dynamic assessment method is used to assess a Belgian office building. The results indicate that a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario causes a decrease of 18 % for the end use of gas for heating and an increase of 32.4 % for the electricity use for cooling and ventilation. For the case study, the reduction of the environmental impact due to the decrease in gas use compensates the impact increase due to the higher electricity use. An increase in environmental impact in future would however occur if both heating and cooling are provided by electricity. Furthermore, depending on the changes that will occur in the electricity mix, the global warming potential of the office building will change by −13 % for an electricity mix dominated by renewables and by + 10 % for one with mainly production by gas compared to the situation with the current mix. However, the inclusion of a more extended list of environmental indicators shows that the overall environmental impact will only reduce by 4 % or even increase by 7 % compared to the situation with the current mix.