Trade-offs between poverty alleviation and household energy intensity in China

The link between energy use and poverty alleviation is the root of the right balance between energy consumption reduction and ending poverty. However, only a few studies evaluated such issues with the decoupling analysis. We estimate the poverty alleviation level using the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index and investigate the decoupling relationship between poverty reduction and household energy intensity (HEI) during 2010–2017. Based on the change in the decoupling state, we develop two scenarios to project the impacts of poverty alleviation on household energy footprints (HEFs) by 2035. A pessimistic scenario assumes that the decoupling state by consumption category in each province stays unchanged, while an optimistic scenario assumes that all provinces achieve strong decoupling across consumption categories. The decoupling analysis shows an overall strong decoupling state in China during 2010–2012, 2012–2015, and 2015–2017. During 2010–2017, basic consumption (i.e., food and clothing) shifted from weak to strong decoupling, while enjoyable consumption (i.e., transport) reflected the opposite direction. The scenario analysis indicates that the total HEFs by 2035 in the optimistic scenario will be 3.64 * 107 TJ, which is smaller than that in the pessimistic scenario by 58.7%. Our study implies that fast economic development provides a pathway for the synchronous achievement of energy use reduction and poverty alleviation goals in China. •Poverty levels at national and provincial levels are measured.•The decoupling state of household energy intensity and poverty alleviation is analyzed.•The future impacts of poverty alleviation on household energy footprints are projected.•The decoupling state of basic consumption and enjoyable consumption present opposite shifts.•The emissions in the optimistic scenario were smaller than the pessimistic scenario by 58.7%.