A novel coupling cloud decision-making framework for investigating population-economy-water consumption nexus in the Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River, China

Rapid urbanization, increased population and exacerbated water consumption, have been the huge challenges for the sustainable socio-economic development. Investigating the interaction of population-economy-water consumption (PEW) is important for promoting the regional high-quality development. PEW studies based on data with small sample sizes have inevitably uncertainties, especially in ecologically fragile areas. However, existing studies still fail to consider these uncertainties. To overcome the above shortcoming, this study proposed a coupling cloud integration algorithm (CCIA) drawing on the advantages of coupling coordination degree and cloud models. A novel coupling cloud decision-making framework combining CCIA and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) model was developed to determine the coupling coordination level of PEW. The Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River (IMYR), a typical ecologically fragile area, was served as the study area. Results showed that PEW nexus evolved from seriously uncoordinated development to barely coordinated development in IMYR. Cities with the seriously uncoordinated development disappeared, and cities with barely coordinated development increased by 71.43% from 2001 to 2020. Coupling coordination levels had remarkable spatial difference influenced by geographical features and ecological environment, showing that southeastern IMYR was higher than northwestern IMYR. Our findings highlight the insufficient ecological water consumptions have posed potential threats to the high-quality development in IMYR. Effective measures should be formulated to relieve its impact on IMYR, and promote sustainable development in ecologically fragile areas. •Inherent uncertainties arising from data with small sample sizes were considered.•A coupling cloud integration algorithm drawing on coupling coordination degree and cloud models was developed.•A novel hybrid decision-making framework was constructed to determine the coupling coordination level.•Population-economy-water consumption (PEW) nexus was investigated in ecologically fragile areas.•The spatial distribution and driving factors of coupling coordination levels were determined.