Habitat limits the poleward establishment of anemonefishes in a climate change hotspot

Climate change is modifying marine species' distribution with consequences for the structure and function of ecosystems. The warming and strengthening East Australian Current (EAC) is driving the tropicalisation of subtropical marine ecosystems through changing overwinter survival of tropical species. However, this can be complex for obligate symbionts, such as anemonefishes. Here, we documented fine-scale temporal changes in the density of anemonefishes and assessed the influence of latitude, temperature, and host sea anemone availability. Juvenile, subadult and adult Amphiprion akindynos and Amphiprionlatezonatus occurred at all study locations: North Solitary Island (equatorward), South Solitary Island, and Fish Rock (poleward). While the sea anemone Heteractis crispa was readily available at Fish Rock, we found that a lack of another sea anemone Entacmaea quadricolor hindered the establishment of adult A. akindynos and A. latezonatus populations. Minimum water temperature was also a bottleneck for the tropical anemonefish A. akindynos but not for the subtropical A. latezonatus. Our findings suggest anemonefishes are capable of contributing to the tropicalisation of the east coast of Australia. However, poleward establishment is currently limited by the absence of the preferred host sea anemone. [Display omitted] •Anemonefishes are experiencing climate change on the east coast of Australia.•These fishes are in the arrival stage of a southern range expansion at Fish Rock.•Establishment is habitat limited for Amphiprion akindynos and A. latezonatus.•Minimum temperature and overwintering are also bottlenecks for A. akindynos.•Ocean warming may lead to establishment and tropicalisation if habitat is available.